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The relevance of the research topic is driven by the increasing risks to demographic development due to the war in Ukraine and the outflow of the economically active population. The article outlines the importance of demographic processes for the country’s economic stability and social development. The research aims to analyse the impact of migration flows on Ukraine’s demographic situation and develop proposals for improving demographics. The methodology includes the analysis of the current state of demographics, migration processes, development scenarios, and possible measures to ensure development stability. The research results reveal the problems of demographic development through the geographical diversification of the economically active population. An essential area of the study in the article is the analysis of the impact of forced migration on the labour market, social structure, and economic development of Ukraine. The practical significance involves the development of recommendations for state policy regarding supporting demographic development during the war and the post-war period. The article aims to evaluate measures to stimulate the return of migrants, support birth rates, and improve social infrastructure. The analysis results may help develop strategic plans to restore Ukraine’s demographic potential. Measures to strengthen demographic stability and their possible implementation are presented in the face of current challenges. Further directions for optimising state policy to ensure sustainable demographic growth and economic development of the country are outlined.
Demographic development is critical to any country’s stable and sustainable economic development. It determines the potential for economic growth, social stability, and overall well-being of the population. An essential component of demographic development is the economically active population, which creates added value, ensures innovative development, and forms the basis for future economic prosperity [1]. The economically active population includes working-age people who produce goods and services, pay taxes, and support the functioning of social systems. Therefore, maintaining and increasing the number of economically active people is a strategically important task for every state.
A constant decline in population numbers has characterised the demographic situation in Ukraine over the past decades. High mortality rates, low birth rates, and intensive migration have contributed to the decrease in the number of inhabitants in the country. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the population decreased from 52 million in the early 1990s to 41 million in 2022. According to Gukalova [2], the main reasons for this process are prolonged economic instability, social problems, and insufficient support for families with children. Many of the population migrates to other countries for better economic opportunities and living conditions. This leads to an ageing population and an increased burden on social and pension systems, creating additional challenges for state policy and economic development.
The war that began in Ukraine in 2022 has significantly exacerbated existing demographic problems and added new challenges. Mass forced migration, infrastructure destruction, and threats to citizens’ lives and health have led to a significant reduction in the population, especially economically active individuals. According to estimates by international organisations, millions of Ukrainians were forced to leave the country or move to safer regions [3]. This has negatively affected the labour market, economic activity, and social stability. Strengthening international support, attracting investments to restore destroyed infrastructure, and implementing state programmes to support the return and integration of migrants should become priority steps towards stabilising and increasing the population. Restoring economic activity, modernising social systems, and creating favourable conditions for birth rates are necessary for overcoming the demographic crisis and ensuring the sustainable development of Ukraine in the post-war period.
Scholars actively research the issue of Ukraine’s demographic development due to the significance of this topic for the country’s socioeconomic development. The demographic crisis in Ukraine attracts considerable interest in the scientific community, as population size and structure directly impact economic stability, the labour market, and social systems. During the analysis of demographic trends in Ukraine, one can highlight the negative impact of forced migration and declining birth rates on the overall population [4]. According to Mulska, the economically active population is critically important for economic recovery and growth, and its loss due to migration creates severe challenges for state policy [5]. Kulu’s research focuses on internal migration in Ukraine and its consequences for regional development, pointing to the necessity of supporting internally displaced persons and creating conditions for their integration [6]. Sundqvist notes that the war caused a significant wave of external migration, affecting the country’s labour market and demographic structure [7]. Scholar Kaberti emphasises that state policy should include measures to stimulate the return of migrants and support birth rates [8]. Researcher Ryazantsev studies the impact of forced migration on economic activity and social stability in Ukraine, highlighting the importance of international support in the country’s recovery [9]. Author Kichurchak identified that prolonged migration of the economically active population can lead to significant human capital losses and slow economic development [10]. Seheda’s 2019 study focuses on demographic forecasts for Ukraine, considering possible development scenarios and adapting state policy to new challenges [11]. Čajková points out the importance of demographic recovery for ensuring sustainable development of the country in the post-war period [12]. Lozynskyy’s research analyses the challenges Ukraine faces due to the demographic crisis, particularly the ageing population and the declining share of economically active individuals [13]. Vasyltsiv emphasises the need to develop a comprehensive strategy for demographic recovery, which includes measures to support families, stimulate birth rates, and encourage the return of migrants [14]. Filatova recommends implementing specialised programmes to integrate internally displaced persons and support economic activity in regions affected by the war [15]. Kudełko studies the impact of demographic changes on the labour market and economic stability, proposing ways to overcome negative trends through social policy reform [16]. According to Kichurchak, ensuring demographic stability and stimulating the return of the economically active population to Ukraine is critical for supporting economic growth and social harmony [17]. From a national policy perspective, Barbalat explores the role of state programmes in supporting families affected by the war, emphasising the importance of integration initiatives and financial support to create favourable conditions for birth rates [18]. Smirnov highlights the challenges associated with integrating internally displaced persons, stressing the need to develop comprehensive strategies for their social adaptation [19]. Levchenko’s research found that implementing standardised programmes for the return of migrants contributes to the unification of approaches in solving depopulation problems and increasing the population [20]. Scholar Vasylkivskyi analyses strategies for training specialists in the field of demographic recovery [21]. Author Mijanović considers the impact of state initiatives on the long-term resolution of demographic problems to ensure population sustainability [22]. Researcher Ivanyuk analyses the impact of cultural and social factors on the effectiveness of demographic programmes in different regions of Ukraine [23]. Scholar Tytok emphasises that the success of demographic initiatives depends on economic incentives [24]. Gritsko’s work indicates the need to adapt state methods of demographic development support to the specific cultural mentality of different regions to ensure the effectiveness of these programmes [25]. Rodríguez-Muñoz’s research points to the prospect of widely implementing culturally sensitive approaches in the practice of demographic policy [26]. Thus, scholars have a standard view regarding the importance of addressing challenges related to demographic processes within the country.
The research aims to analyse contemporary risks to Ukraine’s demographic development under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population. The article reveals the impact of demographic changes on the socioeconomic stability of the country and the possibilities for recovery. The research problem is identifying the main factors causing forced migration and assessing their impact on the population’s size and structure. The main task of the research includes analysing current demographic trends, developing future development scenarios, and proposing state policy measures to improve the demographic situation. The practical significance lies in evaluating the impact of forced migration on the labour market, social sphere, and economy. A promising research direction is the assessment of possibilities for ensuring sustainable demographic development and economic stability under conditions of ongoing demographic changes. The research aims to develop strategic initiatives that will contribute to population growth, improve the quality of life for citizens, and ensure long-term socioeconomic stability in Ukraine.
The methodology for assessing contemporary risks to Ukraine’s demographic development includes four stages to substantiate necessary measures to stabilise the country’s demographic situation. The sample covers the population residing in Ukraine and those who have moved abroad from 2022 to 2024. The first stage involves a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the demographic situation in Ukraine for 2022 and 2023, including the collection and analysis of statistical data on population size, birth and death rates. At this stage, we have analysed socioeconomic indicators, living conditions, and infrastructure affecting demographic processes. The second stage focuses on studying migration processes that have arisen due to the war after 2022, using data on the number and characteristics of economically active individuals who have left the country. An analysis of internal and external migration, the loss of skilled personnel, and changes in the population’s social structure has been conducted. The third stage includes designing and analysing scenarios for further developing the demographic situation in Ukraine, considering different migration flow options and their impact on the economy and social sphere. Possible scenarios have been modelled considering different levels of migrant return, refugee integration, and changes in birth and death rates based on long-term socioeconomic forecasts. The final stage involves developing and substantiating proposals for possible measures to improve the demographic situation, including stimulating the return of migrants, supporting birth rates, integrating migrants into society, creating favourable conditions for economic development, and reducing the negative consequences of migration for the labour market. The respective proposals included measures at both the state and international levels. The article provides recommendations for international organisations and donors regarding support for Ukraine’s demographic stability.
As of 2024, the demographic situation in Ukraine is characterised by several critical trends. Over the past decades, Ukraine has experienced significant demographic losses due to low birth rates, high mortality rates, and considerable population migration. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the country’s population is declining due to natural decrease and emigration. This leads to an ageing nation and a reduced share of the economically active population. The birth rate remains low, while the mortality rate, especially among the working-age population, is one of the highest in Europe. The population’s age structure is shifting towards older age groups, creating additional pressure on the social security and healthcare systems. The level of internal migration affects demographic processes through the movement of the population from rural areas to cities, causing depopulation in some regions and population concentration in regional centres.
The war has significantly exacerbated the demographic crisis in Ukraine. Mass forced migration of the economically active population has resulted in substantial losses of human resources. According to estimates by international organisations, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes, seeking safety in other regions of the country or abroad. This has led to a further decrease in the population, especially in areas of active hostilities where infrastructure has been destroyed and economic activity has been paralysed. The increase in the number of refugees and internally displaced persons creates additional pressure on the social and economic systems of the receiving regions, complicating their ability to provide an adequate standard of living for all citizens. The war has also negatively affected family structures and birth rates, as many young people have postponed plans to start families due to instability and uncertainty about the future. All these factors together threaten to deepen the demographic crisis further, which has long-term negative consequences for Ukraine’s economic development and social stability. The overall demographic situation as of 2024 is depicted in Figure 1.
The mass migration of the working population and the geographical differentiation of businesses significantly impact Ukraine’s economic structure. Many companies were forced to relocate their offices and production to safer regions or abroad, leading to a decline in economic activity in the war-affected regions. The movement of businesses and labour resources to the western regions of Ukraine or other European countries creates new opportunities for economic growth in these areas but also leads to competition for resources and labour. Problems with energy infrastructure due to damage from hostilities complicate the functioning of industrial enterprises and the supply of energy to residential and commercial facilities, further worsening the economic situation. The lack of qualified labour due to migration and energy supply issues are substantial challenges that require immediate measures to stabilise and restore Ukraine’s economic potential.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the dynamics of border crossings from Ukraine in 2022-2023 show a significant increase in the number of people leaving the country due to the war. As of August 1 2022, over 8 million people had left Ukraine, while only 4 million had returned, resulting in a negative balance of 4 million. Many migrants leave for safety and better economic opportunities abroad, creating additional challenges for the Ukrainian economy. The situation is detailed further in Table 1.
| Date | Leaving Ukraine | Entering Ukraine | Indicator |
| 01.08.2022 | 8 311 687 | 4 279 441 | -4 032 246 |
| 01.09.2022 | 9 667 942 | 5 456 558 | -4 211 384 |
| 01.10.2022 | 11 266 645 | 6 450 006 | -4 816 639 |
| 01.11.2022 | 11 995 013 | 7 357 971 | -4 637 042 |
| 01.12.2022 | 13 047 394 | 8 182 720 | -4 864 674 |
| 01.01.2023 | 14 202 190 | 9 129 827 | -5 072 363 |
| 01.02.2023 | 15 328 015 | 9 983 965 | -5 344 050 |
| 01.03.2023 | 16 243 995 | 10 668 587 | -5 575 408 |
| 01.04.2023 | 17 252 689 | 11 559 295 | -5 693 394 |
| 01.05.2023 | 18 342 070 | 12 528 786 | -5 813 284 |
| 01.06.2023 | 19 464 399 | 13 408 160 | -6 056 239 |
During the war in 2022-2023, Ukraine experienced mass forced migration caused by direct threats to the lives and health of citizens in areas of active hostilities, the destruction of residential and economic infrastructure, and deteriorating living conditions due to disruptions in the supply of basic services. Many economically active people left the country searching for stable living conditions, leading to substantial human capital losses and reduced economic activity. Internal migration also had a significant impact, as many citizens relocated to safer regions within Ukraine, creating additional pressure on these areas’ social and economic systems. Given the uncertainty of the full-scale war in Ukraine, two scenarios for demographic development are presented in Figure 2.
An optimistic scenario of demographic development envisions a gradual recovery of Ukraine’s population from 2024 to 2028, made possible by several key factors. Firstly, it anticipates the cessation of active hostilities by the end of 2024 and the establishment of a long-term truce, which will facilitate the return of a significant portion of displaced people. The state will actively work on rebuilding infrastructure, creating new jobs, and implementing social programmes to support families, mainly through financial assistance for childbirth and incentives for young families. International organisations and donors will play a crucial role by providing financial and technical assistance to recover the economy and social sphere. Under such conditions, the population is forecasted to grow from 33.4 million in 2024 to 36 million in 2028, indicating successfully overcoming the demographic crisis and creating conditions for the country’s sustainable development.
In a pessimistic scenario, it is expected that the war and unstable political situation in Ukraine will continue, having a catastrophic impact on demographic processes. Prolonged hostilities, infrastructure destruction, and economic stagnation will lead to further population outflow, particularly among the youth and skilled workers seeking better living conditions abroad. The lack of adequate state policy to support demographic growth, coupled with limited opportunities for economic recovery due to low levels of investment and international aid, will result in further population decline. Under these conditions, the population could decrease to 30.1 million in 2024 and continue to fall to 27.6 million in 2028, creating serious challenges for the country’s future development due to a labour shortage and increased pressure on social and pension systems.
Both scenarios must consider additional factors such as changes in birth and death rates, internal migration levels, state policies’ effectiveness, and international support. In the optimistic scenario, an active role of the state in creating conditions for migrant return and stimulating birth rates, including benefits and support for young families, will be crucial. The pessimistic scenario foresees the absence of such measures and further deepening of socioeconomic problems, leading to depopulation and an ageing population. Political stability and the government’s ability to implement reforms to improve citizens’ quality of life and create favourable investment and business development conditions will play a vital role.
Depending on the realisation of these factors, Ukraine can either successfully overcome the demographic crisis or face new challenges that will complicate its long-term development. The main measures to address demographic development issues are outlined in Table 2. To improve the demographic situation during the war, the state must implement comprehensive measures to support the population and preserve human capital. The most critical aspect is ensuring the safety of citizens through effective response to military threats, rapid restoration of damaged infrastructure, and provision of humanitarian aid to affected regions. Supporting economic activity through creating new jobs, especially in safe regions, and supporting businesses affected by the war remains crucial. The state must ensure access to education, medical services, and other social guarantees for internally displaced persons and create conditions for their integration into new communities. For this, attracting international aid and cooperating with international organisations that can provide financial and technical support is necessary.
| Issue | Resolution measures | Result |
| Loss of economically active population |
– Introduction of tax incentives for returning migrants
– Reintegration and retraining programmes for returnees – Financial support for starting a business |
– Return of migrants
– Growth in the number of jobs – Economic revival of the regions |
| Low birth rate |
– Increasing social benefits for families with children
– Expanding maternity and childhood support programmes – Providing affordable and quality healthcare services – Implementation of affordable housing programmes for young families |
– Increase in the birth rate
– Improved quality of life for families – Stable demographic development |
| Uneven distribution of the population |
– Developing infrastructure in depressed regions
– Introducing relocation programmes for enterprises – Stimulating investment in less developed regions |
– Even the distribution of the population
– Development of regions – Reduction of social inequality |
| Social and economic adaptation of migrants |
– Creation of centres for social adaptation and support
– Educational programmes for adults and children – Psychological support and counselling |
– Easy integration of migrants
– Reduction of social tension – Improving the living standards of migrants |
In the post-war period, the state should focus on stimulating the return of displaced people and creating conditions for demographic growth. Implementing return and reintegration programmes for migrants should include the provision of housing, employment, and social support. An important aspect is supporting birth rates by introducing benefits for young families, significantly increasing financial assistance for childbirth, and improving access to quality medical care and childcare facilities. The restoration and modernisation of educational and medical infrastructure will ensure a high quality of life and help retain the population in the country. Only with a comprehensive approach and effective implementation of these measures can Ukraine overcome the demographic crisis and ensure sustainable development in the future.
The issue of demographic development sparks active discussions among scholars. The results indicate a significant impact of migration on demographic processes, which aligns with Shevchenko’s (2021) conclusions regarding the loss of human capital [27]. According to Korolyov, supporting families and stimulating birth rates are critical for demographic recovery, which is confirmed by our findings on the necessity of state support programmes [28]. Ernst’s research highlights the importance of integrating internally displaced persons, which coincides with our recommendations for creating conditions for their social adaptation [29].The results of Bvalia’s work highlight the war’s negative impact on the population’s economic activity, which matches our observations regarding the decline in economic activity due to migration [30]. Clar’s research details demographic development scenarios under continuous migration [31]. According to Sharma, a long-term solution to demographic problems requires a comprehensive approach, supporting our arguments for an integrated state policy [32]. Lupak’s research points to cultural and social factors [33]. Komušanac found that state initiatives have a significant impact on demographic processes, which aligns with observations on the role of state support in stimulating the return of migrants [34]. According to Koukalová’s conclusions, promising approaches to demographic policy include supporting economic activity [35,37]. Lyapin highlights the need for family support programmes and the importance of comprehensive measures to improve the demographic situation [36,38]. Thus, scholars emphasise the importance of developing and implementing strategic initiatives to ensure sustainable demographic development in Ukraine in the face of current challenges.
Thus, contemporary risks to demographic development under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population have been analysed. The current state of the demographic situation in Ukraine, the impact of the war on migration processes, and scenarios for further demographic development until 2028 were considered. Maintaining and increasing the number of economically active populations is critical for ensuring the country’s economic stability and social development. The analysis of migration processes caused by the war showed significant human capital losses, negatively affecting the labour market and economic activity. Developed optimistic and pessimistic scenarios provide an opportunity to assess potential ways to recover and stabilise the demographic situation under different political and economic strategies.
Several problems may complicate Ukraine’s demographic recovery. The main ones include the prolonged war, creating instability and threats to citizens’ lives, and infrastructure destruction, complicating the return of displaced people. Economic instability and high unemployment hinder the integration of internally displaced persons and the stimulation of birth rates. Global challenges include climate change, affecting migration processes and the need to adapt demographic policies to new realities. Another significant problem is population ageing and the increasing burden on social and pension systems, requiring the development of long-term strategies to support older age groups.
Recommendations and necessary measures to improve the demographic situation include implementing comprehensive state programmes to support and stimulate the return of displaced people, integrate internally displaced persons, and support birth rates. It is essential to ensure citizens’ safety and stability by rapidly restoring destroyed infrastructure and providing humanitarian aid to affected regions. The state should promote economic activity by creating new jobs, attracting investments, and supporting small and medium-sized businesses. At the international level, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation with international organisations and donors to obtain financial and technical assistance. The development of family support programmes, including financial incentives for childbirth, access to quality medical care, and educational services, is crucial. Only with a comprehensive approach and effective implementation of these measures can Ukraine overcome the demographic crisis and ensure sustainable development in the future.
